STOCHASTIC MODELING OF THE MACROECONOMIC AGGREGATES - STUDY CASE: ROMANIAN ECONOMIC RELATIONS

                               Liviu-Stelian Begu, Professor PhD
                             Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest
                                     liviubegu@yahoo.co.uk

                                   Alina Cretu, Lecturer PhD
                             Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

                      Adriana Alexandru, Teaching Assistant PhD Student
                           Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest


ABSTRACT: The paper is analyzing the main tendencies in the Romanian economy after
1990, trying to identify, which variables are influencing on long term the process of accession
to EU. Statistical analysis, nonparametric tests, regression analysis and particularly analysis
of the main (principal) factor, applied for a system of aggregate measures, can determine
clusters of ex-communist countries and allows us to establish the gap between Romania and
other ex-communist countries. The paper is also developing possible scenarios for the
Romanian economy. The study case is about the evolution of the main economic indicators for
external relations for Romania in 1996-2006. The evolution is based on balance of payments
and the major economic aggregates. The results shows us that the Romanian economy is not
yet in order but some indicators are very good for a market economy.

Keywords: factorial analysis, balance of payments, cluster of countries, external relations

JEL Codes: F19, L14